The impact of tariff wars on international transportation

In recent years, the frequent escalation of global tariff wars has profoundly changed the international transportation pattern. In the short term, adjustments to tariff policies often cause drastic fluctuations in capacity and freight rates. For example, when the tariff policies between China and the United States are loosened, companies scramble to "export" in order to avoid risks, resulting in "overflow" of shipping space on the US line in the short term, soaring spot freight rates, and even a surge in bookings on some routes by 3-4 times. The uncertainty of the phased tariff exemption policy has further amplified the volatility of market demand: the risk-averse behavior of companies shipping in advance has not only pushed up short-term freight rates, but also laid hidden dangers for the subsequent decline in demand.

In the long run, high tariffs have forced the reconstruction of the international transportation network. In response to trade barriers, shipping companies have drastically reduced the capacity of traditional routes. For example, the suspension rate of the trans-Pacific eastbound route once exceeded 50%, and ships have turned to alternative markets such as Europe and Southeast Asia. The demand for Asia-Europe routes and Southeast Asian routes has grown against the trend, and regional ports and "overseas warehouse" models have developed rapidly. At the same time, the trend of supply chain diversification is accelerating. Enterprises have reduced their dependence on single routes by setting up warehouses in multiple countries and exploring emerging markets, promoting the transformation of international logistics towards decentralization and flexibility.

However, the tariff war has also intensified competition and risks in the shipping market. After the short-term policy dividends fade, concerns about overcapacity and price wars emerge. For example, external shocks such as the Red Sea crisis combined with tariff effects may cause freight rates to plummet by more than 60%. Overall, the tariff war has not only reshaped the flow and direction of international transportation, but also forced the industry to accelerate its adaptation to the new rules under the retreat of globalization - only by improving the resilience of the supply chain and flexibly allocating capacity can we break through the dual fluctuations of policies and markets.